The Joint Cross Section Of Options And Bonds

This paper examines the cross section of options implied volatility and corporate bond returns. We document a strong predictive ability of corporate bond returns using changes in call and put options implied volatility. Specifically, a strategy of buying (selling) the portfolio with lowest (highest) changes in options implied volatility yields an average monthly bond return of 1.03% in excess of the risk free rate. Returns based on this strategy are statistically highly significant and economically very meaningful. The predictive ability persists up to two months. In contrast, we find no evidence that bond prices incorporate information prior to option and stock prices. Since bond investors are generally sophisticated institutional investors who process information in an efficient manner and the predictive ability of options is relatively long, we conclude that informed trading rather than superior information processing abilities is responsible for the predictive ability of options.