Rethinking Capital Regulation

Recent empirical studies have documented two remarkable patterns shown by euro area banks in the aftermath of the Great Recession: (i) their tendency to boost capital ratios by shrinking assets (contraction of loans supply), and (ii) their reluctance to cut back on dividends (fall in retained earnings). First, I provide evidence of a potential link between these two trends. When shocks hit their profits, banks tend to adjust retained earnings to smooth dividends. This generates bank equity and credit supply volatility. Then I develop a DSGE model that incorporates this mechanism to study the transmission and effects of a novel macroprudential policy rule - that I shall call Dividend Prudential Target (DPT) - aimed at complementing existing capital regulation by tackling this issue. Welfare-maximizing DPTs are effective (more than the CCyB) in smoothing the financial and the business cycle (by means of less volatile retained earnings) and induce significant welfare gains associated to a Basel III-type of capital regulation through various channels.