Mozambique Update On Insurgent Operations

The insurgent control over Mocímboa da Praia is expanding. The insurgents’ ability to confront and defeat local government security forces and the PMCs charged with rooting them out appears to be growing by the day. Increased attacks, incursions into Tanzania, new maritime activities, and apparent linkages to international terrorist organizations decrease the likelihood of the conflict being handled internally, with a resultant effect of continued disruption of LNG operations in the near term. These developments are stark indicators that the conflict is growing beyond the ability to be controlled domestically – and a further indication that ASWJ’s impact on the region has increased to a point well beyond Mozambican control. Based on the situation in Cabo Delgado, it is likely that the trend of insurgent violence will continue, and without any major changes to the Mozambican counter-insurgency operations, the security environment will likely continue deteriorating over the near to medium term.