Vulnerability Assessment Of The Spanish Coast To Climate Change

Nowadays coastal zones are densely populated areas all over the world and, consequently, part of the coasts' changes can be attributable to humans. The Spanish coast is a clear example of the previous theory as it constitutes a very popular touristic destination in Europe due to the presence of ecologically valuable areas and for offering the demanded three "s": Sun, sea and sand. However, the large number of people inhabiting the coast increases the pressure on coastal systems and their resources. Climate change and its subsequent sea-level rise put these zones and their living communities at risk, as several studies have predicted potential impacts of erosion and retreat of coastlines. In view of the situation, the increasing awareness of the future situation of the coasts has motivated a large number of vulnerability assessments over the world. These assessments are an essential tool to provide an efficient management, a part from being crucial when optimising the available resources. The actual situation of economic crisis reduces the availability of resources and therefore, a proper optimisation is very important. In this work a vulnerability assessment is carried out along the Spanish coastline. An adaptation of the Coastal Vulnerability Index is applied for the first time at a large (national) scale. Other applications in Spain have been at a regional scale, and this one has the aim to provide a general overview for future management and adaptation. The quantification of the index consists of the evaluation of six variables according to their vulnerability degree that is quantified in a 1 to 5 scale (from very low vulnerability to very high vulnerability). The proposed modification of the index suggest new methodologies to assess certain variables in order to better characterise its contribution to vulnerability and adapt to local conditions. When it comes to the variable sea-level rise, it has been widely predicted and the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has published four scenarios, each of which considers a different sea-level rise rate depending on the intensity of the changes. In the herein thesis, the four possibilities have been considered to provide a broader approach. Once all the variables are put altogether in the formula, the classification of the results must be done. In this sense, diverse methodologies have been proposed: the first one discusses whether the classification scale should be the theoretical (absolute) or the actual one, which is eventually considered better due to the intrinsic relativity of the index. The second one offers the chance to interpret the results from three different approaches: the arithmetic, the conservative and the optimistic one. In conclusion, the vulnerability assessment carried out here illustrates vulnerability along the Spanish coast for four different sea-level rise rates and from the desired approach according to coastal managers' demands.