The Monetary Model Strikes Back
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The Monetary Model Strikes Back
Author | : Valerie Cerra |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 2008-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
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We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in beating a random walk in out-of-sample prediction.
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