The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs
Author | : Jesper Lindé |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 2017-07-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484308751 |
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We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.
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