Projecting World Raw Sugar Prices

Three factors are critical to the long-term outlook for U.S. sugar supply and use: the U.S. sugar program, the availability of sugar imports from Mexico, and the level of sugar prices in the world market. This report presents a modeling framework that can be used to generate world sugar price projections. In addition to using the traditional world supply and demand analysis, the modeling framework emphasizes the role of Brazil, the world's largest producer of sugarcane, sugar, and sugarcane-based ethanol. The resulting model is intended to improve the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture's (USDA's) world sugar price forecasts and enhance scenario analyses to derive implications for future world prices and U.S. sugar policy. The report includes documentation, analysis, and model projections for world sugar markets through 2024/25. Tables and figures. This is a print on demand report.