New Indicators For Tracking Growth In Real Time
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New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time
Author | : Mr.Troy Matheson |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 24 |
Release | : 2011-02-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455218995 |
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We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.