Fiscal Sustainability In Heavily Indebted Countries Dependent On Nonrenewable Resources

This paper proposes a framework for assessing fiscal sustainability in heavily indebted countries dependent on exhaustible resources, with reference to Gabon. It finds that fiscal sustainability could be achieved by: (i) developing a fiscal rule for the non-oil primary fiscal balance compatible with an objective for reducing the debt-to-non-oil GDP ratio; (ii) introducing a constant oil-based income transfer per capita allowing intergenerational equity; and (iii) building up an oil savings fund. Long-term simulations show that Gabon's fiscal position is fragile and that a fiscal policy path consistent with the proposed framework could help achieve comfortable levels of net wealth.