An Innovative Model Integrating Spatial And Statistical Analyses For A Comprehensive Traffic Accident Study

The negative social and economic results of traffic accidents are the most serious problems within the concept of traffic safety. Every year, unfortunately, a huge number of traffic accidents result in destructive losses. Especially, when the holiness of human life is concerned, traffic safety has an invaluable role for the traffic improvement strategies. In this manner, Turkey places one of the highest ranks regarding the growing rate and severity of traffic accidents that should be immediately taken under control. In this study, an innovative model that constructs a hybrid between the spatial and statistical analyses is developed in order to examine the importance of enhancing statistical analysis with georeferenced data and so location-based studies in traffic accident analysis. Meanwhile, the effects of road characteristic and environment are considered for exploring the integral role of roadway factor to the occurrence of accidents, and consequently for emphasizing easily applicable and controllable engineering safety measures. Because of the rare and random distribution of traffic accident data, logistic regression is used for the statistical part of the study in order to find the pairwise risk factors among the roadway and environmental parameters. After unifying these relative risk factors with the logic of Analytic Hierarchy Process, the finalized accident risk factors are attached to the digitized road characteristics map through Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The abilities of GIS in mapping, displaying and overlaying different data sets ensure to visualize high risked accident areas with their corresponding potential causal factors. The integration of statistical and spatial analyses is essential for developing appropriate and effective precautions in addition to its easily understandable, applicable and modifiable structure. Finally, the model is proven to be appropriate for both interpreting the existing traffic accident problem or potential futu.